Daily Papers

We study the estimation of a planted signal hidden in a recently introduced nested matrix-tensor model, which is an extension of the classical spiked rank-one tensor model, motivated by multi-view clustering. Prior work has theoretically examined the performance of a tensor-based approach, which relies on finding a best rank-one approximation, a problem known to be computationally hard. A tractable alternative approach consists in computing instead the best rank-one (matrix) approximation of an unfolding of the observed tensor data, but its performance was hitherto unknown. We quantify here the performance gap between these two approaches, in particular by deriving the precise algorithmic threshold of the unfolding approach and demonstrating that it exhibits a BBP-type transition behavior. This work is therefore in line with recent contributions which deepen our understanding of why tensor-based methods surpass matrix-based methods in handling structured tensor data.

We discuss relevant scalar deformations of a holographic theory with a compact boundary. An example of such a theory would be the global AdS_4 with its spatially compact boundary S^2. To introduce a relevant deformation, we choose to turn on a time-independent and spatially homogeneous non-normalizable scalar operator with m^2 = -2. The finite size of a compact boundary cuts down the RG flow at a finite length scale leading to an incomplete RG flow to IR. We discuss a version of {\it incomplete} C-theorem and an {\it incomplete} attractor like mechanism. We discuss the implication of our results for entanglement entropy and geometric quantities like scalar curvature, volume and mass scale of fundamental excitation of the how these quantities increase or decrease (often monotonically) with the strength of the deformation. Thermal physics of a holographic theory defined on a compact boundary is more interesting than its non-compact counterpart. It is well known that with a compact boundary, there is a possibility of a first order Hawking-Page transition dual to a de-confinement phase transition. From a gravity perspective, a relevant deformation dumps negative energy inside the bulk, increasing the effective cosmological constant (Lambda) of the AdS. Dumping more negative energy in the bulk would make the HP transition harder and the corresponding HP transition temperature would increase. However, we have found the size of the BH at the transition temperature decreases.

We investigate Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet (EGB) 4D massive gravity coupled to nonlinear electrodynamics (NED) in an Anti-de-Sitter (AdS) background and find an exact magnetically charged black hole solution. The metric function was analyzed for different values of massive gravity parameters. We verified the first law of black hole thermodynamics and the generalized Smarr formula, treating the cosmological constant as thermodynamic pressure. Vacuum polarization is defined as the conjugate to the NED parameter. To analyze the local stability of the black hole, we compute specific heat. We investigated the Van der Waals-like/reentrant phase transition of the black holes and estimated the critical points. We observed small/large black hole (SBH/LBH) and small/intermediate/large black hole (SBH/IBH/LBH) phase transitions. The Joule-Thomson coefficient, inversion, and isenthalpic curves are discussed. Finally, the minimum inversion temperature and the corresponding event horizon radius are obtained using numerical techniques.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

Water looks unchanged as it warms, then at a critical point it boils. We ask whether long-horizon language agents show an analogous transition in their implicit world models. In some parameter settings, changing state load by a small amount, or adding a single step of horizon, leaves behavior nearly unchanged; near a critical boundary, the same small change causes a sudden world collapse. We study this effect in a deterministic task family with exact per-step gold state. A large grid search over state cardinality, dependency density, horizon, branching, observation mode, and mutation rate reveals a phase diagram: a solved plateau, a narrow transition band, and a collapse floor. Per-step traces show the mechanism: world-state fidelity fails before action validity, so the agent is not merely choosing a bad action; it is acting from a corrupted world. Stronger models translate the critical boundary but do not remove the qualitative transition. These results make world-model collapse a measurable bottleneck for long-horizon agents.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Human health can be critically affected by cardiovascular diseases, such as hypertension, arrhythmias, and stroke. Heart rate and blood pressure are important biometric information for the monitoring of cardiovascular system and early diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. Existing methods for estimating the heart rate are based on electrocardiography and photoplethyomography, which require contacting the sensor to the skin surface. Moreover, catheter and cuff-based methods for measuring blood pressure cause inconvenience and have limited applicability. Therefore, in this thesis, we propose a vision-based method for estimating the heart rate and blood pressure. This thesis proposes a 2-stage deep learning framework consisting of a dual remote photoplethysmography network (DRP-Net) and bounded blood pressure network (BBP-Net). In the first stage, DRP-Net infers remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) signals for the acral and facial regions, and these phase-shifted rPPG signals are utilized to estimate the heart rate. In the second stage, BBP-Net integrates temporal features and analyzes phase discrepancy between the acral and facial rPPG signals to estimate SBP and DBP values. To improve the accuracy of estimating the heart rate, we employed a data augmentation method based on a frame interpolation model. Moreover, we designed BBP-Net to infer blood pressure within a predefined range by incorporating a scaled sigmoid function. Our method resulted in estimating the heart rate with the mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.78 BPM, reducing the MAE by 34.31 % compared to the recent method, on the MMSE-HR dataset. The MAE for estimating the systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were 10.19 mmHg and 7.09 mmHg. On the V4V dataset, the MAE for the heart rate, SBP, and DBP were 3.83 BPM, 13.64 mmHg, and 9.4 mmHg, respectively.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

Predicting the intermediate trajectories between an initial and target distribution is a central problem in generative modeling. Existing approaches, such as flow matching and Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching, effectively learn mappings between two distributions by modeling a single stochastic path. However, these methods are inherently limited to unimodal transitions and cannot capture branched or divergent evolution from a common origin to multiple distinct outcomes. To address this, we introduce Branched Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (BranchSBM), a novel framework that learns branched Schr\"odinger bridges. BranchSBM parameterizes multiple time-dependent velocity fields and growth processes, enabling the representation of population-level divergence into multiple terminal distributions. We show that BranchSBM is not only more expressive but also essential for tasks involving multi-path surface navigation, modeling cell fate bifurcations from homogeneous progenitor states, and simulating diverging cellular responses to perturbations.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

We develop an asymptotic perturbation theory for the large logarithmic behavior of the non-linear integro-differential equation describing the soft correlations of QCD jet measurements, the Banfi-Marchesini-Smye (BMS) equation. This equation captures the late-time evolution of radiating color dipoles after a hard collision. This allows us to prove that at large values of the control variable (the non-global logarithm, a function of the infra-red energy scales associated with distinct hard jets in an event), the distribution has a gaussian tail. We compute the decay width analytically, giving a closed form expression, and find it to be jet geometry independent, up to the number of legs of the dipole in the active jet. Enabling the asymptotic expansion is the correct perturbative seed, where we perturb around an anzats encoding formally no real emissions, an intuition motivated by the buffer region found in jet dynamics. This must be supplemented with the correct application of the BFKL approximation to the BMS equation in collinear limits. Comparing to the asymptotics of the conformally related evolution equation encountered in small-x physics, the Balitisky-Kovchegov (BK) equation, we find that the asymptotic form of the non-global logarithms directly maps to the black-disc unitarity limit of the BK equation, despite the contrasting physical pictures. Indeed, we recover the equations of saturation physics in the final state dynamics of QCD.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

For long-range percolation on Z with translation-invariant edge kernel J, it is a classical theorem of Aizenman and Newman (1986) that the phase transition is discontinuous when J(x,y) is of order |x-y|^{-2} and that there is no phase transition at all when J(x,y)=o(|x-y|^{-2}). We prove a strengthened version of this theorem for the hierarchical lattice, where the relevant threshold is at |x-y|^{-2d} loglog |x-y| rather than |x-y|^{-2}: There is a continuous phase transition for kernels of larger order, a discontinuous phase transition for kernels of exactly this order, and no phase transition at all for kernels of smaller order. As such, |x-y|^{-2d} loglog |x-y| is essentially the only kernel that produces a discontinuous phase transition. We also prove a hierarchical analogue of the ``M^2β=1'' conjecture of Imbrie and Newman (1988), which gives an exact formula for the density of the infinite cluster at the point of discontinuous phase transition and remains open in the Euclidean setting.

We study the emergence of multi-step reasoning in deep Transformer language models through a geometric and statistical-physics lens. Treating the hidden-state trajectory as a flow on an implicit Riemannian manifold, we analyze the layerwise covariance spectrum of activations, where C^{(ell)}=E[h^{(ell)}h^{(ell)top}], and track deviations from a random-matrix bulk. Across model scales (1.5B--30B), we observe a sharp reduction in effective dimensionality consistent with a phase transition: an order parameter based on sparsity/localization, Ω(h)=1-|h|_1/(d|h|_2), exhibits a discontinuity near a critical normalized depth γ_capprox 0.42 in sufficiently large models. We formalize the forward pass as a discrete coarse-graining map and relate the appearance of stable "concept basins" to fixed points of this renormalization-like dynamics. The resulting low-entropy regime is characterized by a spectral tail collapse and by the formation of transient, reusable object-like structures in representation space, which we call Transient Class Objects (TCOs). We provide theoretical conditions connecting logical separability to spectral decay and validate the predicted signatures with layerwise probes on multiple open-weight model families.

We study flat space cosmologies in two dimensions by taking the flat space limit of the Achucarro-Ortiz model. We unravel a phase transition between hot flat space and flat space cosmologies, and derive a new dilaton-dependent counterterm required for the consistency of the Euclidean partition function. Our results generalize to asymptotically mass-dominated 2-dimensional dilaton gravity models, whose thermodynamical properties we discuss. The novel case of asymptotic mass-domination is neither covered by the comprehensive discussion of hep-th/0703230 nor by the more recent generalization to dilaton gravity with confining U(1) charges in 1406.7007.

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, K_d(490), to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Massive contact binaries (CBs) are key to understanding close-binary evolution and stellar mergers, yet their study has been limited by the scarcity of observed systems, particularly of B-type binaries expected to dominate this class. We bridge this gap by mining a large sample of massive CB candidates from the OGLE-IV database, increasing their known numbers in the Magellanic Clouds by nearly an order of magnitude. Using main-sequence colour-magnitude limits, an observationally informed period-luminosity-colour relation for CBs, and a high morph-parameter cut (cgeq0.7), we identified 68 O- and B-type binaries that exhibit smooth, sinusoidal light curves with nearly equal eclipse depths. We then isolated a bona fide sample of 37 CB candidates (28 in the LMC and 9 in the SMC) that match theoretical colour-magnitude and period distributions derived from an extensive grid of MESA binary models. The bona fide sample, dominated by B-type systems with Papprox0.6-1 d, agrees with the predicted population and may contain many qapprox1 binaries, as expected from models showing mass equalization preceding temperature equalization during nuclear-timescale contact. Synthetic PHOEBE light curves of contact and near-contact phases of MESA models reveal a degeneracy between these configurations, suggesting possible misidentifications among these systems. Spectroscopic follow-up is required to test these predictions and refine the evolutionary framework of massive CBs.

We present a Spatially Embedded Evolutionary Algorithm where robot individuals exist in a physically simulated 2D environment, must navigate to encounter potential mates, and compete for survival under various spatially-aware selection pressures. Using HyperNEAT evolved neural controllers for ARIEL gecko-inspired quadrupeds in MuJoCo, we investigate how spatial structure fundamentally alters evolutionary dynamics. Our experiments show a modest 4.9% difference in peak fitness between proximity-based and random pairing possibly within stochastic variation while combining spatial parent selection with stochastic death selection produces unstable population dynamics. We discover a continuous phase transition in energy-based selection experiments, with critical zone count separating extinction-dominated and explosion-dominated regimes. Our density-dependent death selection mechanism achieves 97% completion rates but causes fitness decline, revealing a fundamental dilemma where decoupled mechanisms produce bistable dynamics, positively coupled mechanisms create counter-selection pressures, and only deterministic fitness-based selection maintains stability. These findings provide important constraints for future spatial EA design.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

We investigate BZT shocks and the QCD phase transition in the dense core of a cold quark star in beta equilibrium subject to the multicomponent van der Waals (MvdW) equation of state (EoS) as a model of internal structure. When this system is expressed in terms of multiple components, it can be used to explore the impact of a phase transition from a hadronic state to a quark plasma state with a complex clustering structure. The clustering can take the form of colored diquarks or triquarks and bound colorless meson, baryon, or hyperon states at the phase transition boundary. The resulting multicomponent EoS system is nonconvex, which can give rise to Bethe-Zel'dovich-Thompson (BZT) phase changing shock waves. Using the BZT shock wave condition we find constraints on the quark density and examine how this changes the tidal deformability of the compact core. These results are then combined with the TOV equations to find the resulting mass and radius relationship. These state are compared to recent astrophysical high-mass neutron star systems, which may provide evidence for a core that has undergone a quark gluon phase transition such as PSR 0943+10 or GW 190814.

We study the one-dimensional nonlocal Kirchhoff type bifurcation problem related to logistic equation of population dynamics. We establish the precise asymptotic formulas for bifurcation curve lambda = lambda(alpha) as alpha to infty in L^2-framework, where alpha:= Vert u_lambda Vert_2.

Diffusion bridges have shown potential in paired image-to-image (I2I) translation tasks. However, existing methods are limited by their unidirectional nature, requiring separate models for forward and reverse translations. This not only doubles the computational cost but also restricts their practicality. In this work, we introduce the Bidirectional Diffusion Bridge Model (BDBM), a scalable approach that facilitates bidirectional translation between two coupled distributions using a single network. BDBM leverages the Chapman-Kolmogorov Equation for bridges, enabling it to model data distribution shifts across timesteps in both forward and backward directions by exploiting the interchangeability of the initial and target timesteps within this framework. Notably, when the marginal distribution given endpoints is Gaussian, BDBM's transition kernels in both directions possess analytical forms, allowing for efficient learning with a single network. We demonstrate the connection between BDBM and existing bridge methods, such as Doob's h-transform and variational approaches, and highlight its advantages. Extensive experiments on high-resolution I2I translation tasks demonstrate that BDBM not only enables bidirectional translation with minimal additional cost but also outperforms state-of-the-art bridge models. Our source code is available at [https://github.com/kvmduc/BDBM||https://github.com/kvmduc/BDBM].

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Recent experiments on 2D superconductors allow the characterization of the critical temperature and of the phase diagram across the BCS-BEC crossover as a function of density. We obtain from these experiments the microscopic parameters of the superconducting state at low temperatures by the BCS mean-field approach. For Li_xZrNCl, the extracted parameters are used to evaluate the superconducting phase stiffness and the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) critical temperature throughout the BCS-BEC crossover, by implementing the corresponding Renormalization Group (RG) approach. In this way, we make a quantitative test of the predictive power of the BKT theory for evaluating the critical temperature. The RG flow equations turn out to give a sizable renormalization of the phase stiffness and of the critical temperature, which is crucial to obtain a satisfactory agreement between the BKT theory and the experiments, in particular in the BCS-BEC crossover regime. We predict the temperature range where phase stiffness renormalization can be measured in Li_xZrNCl across the BCS-BEC crossover. Contrary to other microscopic theories of superconductivity, we find that the BKT theory can be exploited to evaluate quantitatively the critical temperature of 2D superconductors in different pairing regimes.

In recent years, a variety of gradient-based first-order methods have been developed to solve bi-level optimization problems for learning applications. However, theoretical guarantees of these existing approaches heavily rely on the simplification that for each fixed upper-level variable, the lower-level solution must be a singleton (a.k.a., Lower-Level Singleton, LLS). In this work, we first design a counter-example to illustrate the invalidation of such LLS condition. Then by formulating BLPs from the view point of optimistic bi-level and aggregating hierarchical objective information, we establish Bi-level Descent Aggregation (BDA), a flexible and modularized algorithmic framework for generic bi-level optimization. Theoretically, we derive a new methodology to prove the convergence of BDA without the LLS condition. Our investigations also demonstrate that BDA is indeed compatible to a verify of particular first-order computation modules. Additionally, as an interesting byproduct, we also improve these conventional first-order bi-level schemes (under the LLS simplification). Particularly, we establish their convergences with weaker assumptions. Extensive experiments justify our theoretical results and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed BDA for different tasks, including hyper-parameter optimization and meta learning.

We update predictions for observables in the "delicate" D3/anti-D3 inflationary model on the conifold. We use a full CMB likelihood calculation to assess goodness-of-fit, which is necessary because in this model the zeta power spectrum often cannot be modelled as a power-law over observable scales. For the first time we are able to provide accurate forecasts for the amplitude of three-point correlations. In a significant portion of its parameter space the model follows Maldacena's single-field prediction fNL ~ -(5/12)(ns-1) if nt << 1. Therefore |fNL| is usually small when the power spectrum satisfies observational constraints. In a small number of cases the bispectrum is instead dominated by effects from rapid switching between angular minima. The resulting amplitudes are larger, but mostly with unacceptable spectral behaviour. In the most extreme case we obtain |fNLeq| ~ 75 at kt/3 = 0.002/Mpc. It has been suggested that the quasi-single field inflation ("QSFI") mechanism could produce significant 3-point correlations in this model. We do observe rare shifts in amplitude between equilateral and squeezed configurations that could possibly be associated with QSFI effects, but more investigation is needed to establish the full bispectrum shape. There is evidence of "shape" running between equilateral and squeezed configurations that may be inherited from the scale dependence of the spectrum. We explore the dependence of observables on discrete choices such as the truncation point of the potential. Our analysis illustrates the advantages of a standard format for information exchange within the inflationary model-building and testing community.

We study the hardmax limit of self-attention dynamics for token embeddings obtained in the zero-temperature (βto+infty) regime, and relate it to the finite-β setting. In this limit, the update rule can be viewed as a Frank-Wolfe step for a quadratic objective over the convex hull of the current token embeddings. When the key-query matrix is negative semidefinite, the method linearly contracts all tokens to a single cluster at the origin. When it is positive semidefinite, extending the hardmax rule to the entire convex hull induces a Voronoi diagram: vertices are stationary, interior points remain in their initial cells, and each token moves along a straight line toward its cell's vertex, yielding (super-)exponential convergence. As a byproduct, we also establish well-posedness of the associated ODE limit in this regime. Returning to the finite-β regime, we model self-attention dynamics as a Markov chain and prove dynamic metastability: with high probability, interior tokens reach near-vertex configurations in a constant number of steps and remain within a small neighborhood for times that grow exponentially in the inverse temperature β, before ultimately collapsing to the origin. Thus, the hardmax dynamics accurately approximate the finite-β process over exponentially long time horizons.

Singular limits for the following indirect signalling chemotaxis system align* \left\{ array{lllllll} \partial_t n = \Delta n - \nabla \cdot (n \nabla c ) & in \Omega\times(0,\infty) , \varepsilon \partial_t c = \Delta c - c + w & in \Omega\times(0,\infty), \varepsilon \partial_t w = \tau \Delta w - w + n & in \Omega\times (0,\infty), \partial_\nu n = \partial_\nu c = \partial_\nu w = 0, &on \partial\Omega\times (0,\infty) %(n,c,w)_{t=0} = (n_0,c_0,w_0) & on \Omega, array \right. align* are investigated. More precisely, we study parabolic-elliptic simplification, or PES, varepsilonto 0^+ with fixed tau>0 up to the critical dimension N=4, and indirect-direct simplification, or IDS, (varepsilon,tau)to (0^+,0^+) up to the critical dimension N=2. These are relevant in biological situations where the signalling process is on a much faster time scale compared to the species diffusion and all interactions. Showing singular limits in critical dimensions is challenging. To deal with the PES, we carefully combine the entropy function, an Adam-type inequality, the regularisation of slow evolution, and an energy equation method to obtain strong convergence in representative spaces. For the IDS, a bootstrap argument concerning the L^p-energy function is devised, which allows us to obtain suitable uniform bounds for the singular limits. Moreover, in both scenarios, we also present the convergence rates, where the effect of the initial layer and the convergence to the critical manifold are also revealed.

Using a set of LambdaCDM simulations of cosmic structure formation, we study the evolving connectivity and changing topological structure of the cosmic web using state-of-the-art tools of multiscale topological data analysis (TDA). We follow the development of the cosmic web topology in terms of the evolution of Betti number curves and feature persistence diagrams of the three (topological) classes of structural features: matter concentrations, filaments and tunnels, and voids. The Betti curves specify the prominence of features as a function of density level, and their evolution with cosmic epoch reflects the changing network connections between these structural features. The persistence diagrams quantify the longevity and stability of topological features. In this study we establish, for the first time, the link between persistence diagrams, the features they show, and the gravitationally driven cosmic structure formation process. By following the diagrams' development over cosmic time, the link between the multiscale topology of the cosmic web and the hierarchical buildup of cosmic structure is established. The sharp apexes in the diagrams are intimately related to key transitions in the structure formation process. The apex in the matter concentration diagrams coincides with the density level at which, typically, they detach from the Hubble expansion and begin to collapse. At that level many individual islands merge to form the network of the cosmic web and a large number of filaments and tunnels emerge to establish its connecting bridges. The location trends of the apex possess a self-similar character that can be related to the cosmic web's hierarchical buildup. We find that persistence diagrams provide a significantly higher and more profound level of information on the structure formation process than more global summary statistics like Euler characteristic or Betti numbers.

Chemical reaction networks can undergo nonequilibrium phase transitions upon variation of external control parameters like the chemical potential of a species. We investigate the flux in the associated chemostats that is proportional to the entropy production and its critical fluctuations within the Schlögl model. Numerical simulations show that the corresponding diffusion coefficient diverges at the critical point as a function of system size. In the vicinity of the critical point, the diffusion coefficient follows a scaling form. We develop an analytical approach based on the chemical Langevin equation and van Kampen's system size expansion that yields the corresponding exponents in the monostable regime. In the bistable regime, we rely on a two-state approximation in order to analytically describe the critical behavior.

We investigate the formation of large peaks in the inflationary curvature power spectrum from double-well potentials. In such scenarios, the initial CMB spectrum is created at large field values. Subsequently, the inflaton will cross one of the minima and will decelerate rapidly as it reaches the local maximum at the origin, either falling back or crossing it. During this final phase, a significant peak in the curvature power spectrum can be generated. Our analysis reveals that this class of models produces more pronounced peaks than the more commonly studied quasi-inflection point scenarios with less tuning for the model parameters. Finally, we construct an explicit theoretically motivated inflationary scenario that is consistent with the latest CMB observations and capable of generating sufficiently large curvature perturbations for primordial black holes.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

Critical temperature, T_c, and the transition width, ΔT_c, are two primary parameters of the superconducting transition. The latter parameter reflects the superconducting state disturbance originating from the thermodynamic fluctuations, atomic disorder, applied magnetic field, the presence of secondary crystalline phases, applied pressure, etc. Recently, Hirsch and Marsiglio (2020 arXiv:2012.12796) performed an analysis of the transition width in several near-room-temperature superconductors (NRTS) and reported that the reduced transition width, ΔT_c/T_c, in these materials does not follow a conventional trend of transition width broadening on applied magnetic field observed in low- and high-T_c superconductors. Here we present thorough mathematical analysis of the magnetoresistive data, R(T,B), for the high-entropy alloy (ScZrNb)_{0.65}[RhPd]_{0.35} and hydrogen-rich superconductors of Im-3m-H_{3}S, C2/m-LaH_{10} and P63/mmc-CeH_9. We found that the reduced transition width, ΔT_c/T_c, in these materials does follow a conventional broadening trend on applied magnetic field.

We prove that under the heat semigroup (P_τ) on the Boolean hypercube, any nonnegative function f: {-1,1}^n to R_+ exhibits a uniform tail bound that is better than that by Markov's inequality. Specifically, for any η> e^3 and τ> 0, align* P_{X \sim μ}\left( P_τf(X) > η\int f dμ\right) \leq c_τ \log \log η{η\log η}, align* where μ is the uniform measure on the Boolean hypercube {-1,1}^n and c_τ is a constant that only depends on τ. This resolves Talagrand's convolution conjecture up to a dimension-free loglog η factor. Its proof relies on properties of the reverse heat process on the Boolean hypercube and a coupling construction based on carefully engineered perturbations of this reverse heat process.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

In this paper, we present a pure-Python library called PyPop7 for black-box optimization (BBO). As population-based methods are becoming increasingly popular for BBO, our design goal is to provide a unified API and elegant implementations for them, particularly in high-dimensional cases. Since population-based methods suffer easily from the curse of dimensionality owing to their random sampling nature, various improvements have been proposed to alleviate this issue via exploiting possible problem structures: such as space decomposition, low-memory approximation, low-rank metric learning, variance reduction, ensemble of random subspaces, model self-adaptation, and smoothing. Now PyPop7 has covered these advances with >72 versions and variants of 13 BBO algorithm families from different research communities. Its open-source code and full-fledged documents are available at https://github.com/Evolutionary-Intelligence/pypop and https://pypop.readthedocs.io, respectively.

We propose a general correspondence between gravity and spin models, inspired by the well-known IR equivalence between lattice gauge theories and the spin models. This suggests a connection between continuous type Hawking-phase transitions in gravity and the continuous order-disorder transitions in ferromagnets. The black-hole phase corresponds to the ordered and the graviton gas corresponds to the disordered phases respectively. A simple set-up based on Einstein-dilaton gravity indicates that the vicinity of the phase transition is governed by a linear-dilaton CFT. Employing this CFT we calculate scaling of observables near T_c, and obtain mean-field scaling in a semi-classical approximation. In case of the XY model the Goldstone mode is identified with the zero mode of the NS-NS two-form. We show that the second speed of sound vanishes at the transition also with the mean field exponent.

We introduce a new model for the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries to the KETJU code, which enables us to resolve the evolution of SMBH binaries down to separations of tens of Schwarzschild radii in gas-rich galaxy mergers. Our subgrid binary accretion model extends the widely used Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton accretion into the binary phase and incorporates preferential mass accretion onto the secondary SMBH, which is motivated by results from small-scale hydrodynamical circumbinary disc simulations. We perform idealised gas-rich disc galaxy merger simulations using pure thermal or pure kinetic active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. Our binary accretion model provides more physically motivated SMBH mass ratios, which are one of the key parameters for computing gravitational wave (GW) induced recoil velocities. The merger time-scales of our simulated SMBH binaries are in the range t_{rm merge}{sim} 10--400 Myr. Prograde in-plane equal-mass galaxy mergers lead to the shortest merger time-scales, as they experience the strongest starbursts, with the ensuing high stellar density resulting in a rapid SMBH coalescence. Compared to the thermal AGN feedback, the kinetic AGN feedback predicts longer merger time-scales and results in more core-like stellar profiles, as it is more effective in removing gas from the galaxy centre and quenching star formation. This suggests that the AGN feedback implementation plays a critical role in modelling SMBH coalescences. Our model will be useful for improving the modelling of SMBH mergers in gas-rich galaxies, the prime targets for the upcoming LISA GW observatory.

In this article, we consider a newly proposed parameterization of the viscosity coefficient zeta, specifically zeta=zeta_0 {Omega^s_m} H , where zeta_0 = zeta_0{{Omega^s_{m_0}}} within the coincident f(Q) gravity formalism. We consider a non-linear function f(Q)= -Q +alpha Q^n, where alpha and n are arbitrary model parameters, which is a power-law correction to the STEGR scenario. We find an autonomous system by invoking the dimensionless density parameters as the governing phase-space variables. We discuss the physical significance of the model corresponding to the parameter choices n=-1 and n=2 along with the exponent choices s=0, 0.5, and 1.05. We find that model I shows the stable de-Sitter type or stable phantom type (depending on the choice of exponent s) behavior with no transition epoch, whereas model II shows the evolutionary phase from the radiation epoch to the accelerated de-Sitter epoch via passing through the matter-dominated epoch. Hence, we conclude that model I provides a good description of the late-time cosmology but fails to describe the transition epoch, whereas model II modifies the description in the context of the early universe and provides a good description of the matter and radiation era along with the transition phase.

Stars on the AGB can exhibit acoustic pulsation modes of different radial orders, along with non-radial modes. These pulsations are essential to the mass-loss process and influence the evolutionary pathways of AGB stars. P-L relations serve as a valuable diagnostic for understanding stellar evolution along the AGB. 3D RHD simulations provide a powerful tool for investigating pulsation phenomena driven by convective processes and their non-linear coupling with stellar oscillations. We investigate multi-mode pulsations in AGB stars using advanced 3D 'star-in-a-box' simulations with the CO5BOLD code. Signatures of these multi-mode pulsations were weak in our previous 3D models. Our focus is on identifying and characterising the various pulsation modes, examining their persistence and transitions, and comparing the results with 1D model predictions and observational data where applicable. We produced a new model grid comprising AGB stars with current masses of 0.7, 0.8, and 1,M_{odot}. Fourier analysis was applied to dynamic, time-dependent quantities to extract dominant pulsation modes and their corresponding periods. Additionally, wavelet transforms were employed to identify mode-switching behaviour over time. The models successfully reproduce the P-L sequences found in AGB stars. Mode-switching phenomena are found in both the models and wavelet analyses of observational data, allowing us to infer similarities in the underlying pulsation dynamics. These 3D simulations highlight the natural emergence of multi-mode pulsations, including both radial and non-radial modes, driven by the self-consistent interplay of convection and oscillations. Our findings underscore the value of 3D RHD models in capturing the non-linear behaviour of AGB pulsations, providing insights into mode switching, envelope structures, and potential links to episodic mass-loss events.

We report on studies of the superconducting and normal state properties of the noncentrosymmetric superconductor BeAu under hydrostatic pressure conditions. The room-temperature equation of state (EOS) reveals the values of the bulk modulus (B_0) and its first derivative (B^prime_0) at ambient pressure to be B_0 simeq 132~GPa and B^prime_0 simeq 30, respectively. Up to the highest pressures studied (p simeq 2.2~GPa), BeAu remains a multi-gap type-I superconductor. The analysis of B_{rm c}(T, p) data within the self-consistent two-gap approach suggests the presence of two superconducting energy gaps, with the gap-to-T_{rm c} ratios Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 2.3 and Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 1.1 for the larger and smaller gaps, respectively [Δ= Δ(0) is the zero-temperature value of the gap and k_{rm B} is the Boltzmann constant]. With increasing pressure, Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} increases while Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} decreases, suggesting that pressure enhances (weakens) the coupling strength between the superconducting carriers within the bands where the larger (smaller) superconducting energy gap has opened. The superconducting transition temperature T_{rm c}, black{the zero-temperature values of the superconducting gaps Δ_1 and Δ_2} and the zero-temperature value of the thermodynamic critical field B_{rm c}(0) decrease with increasing pressure, with the rates of {rm d}T_{rm c}/{rm d}p simeq -0.195~K/GPa, black{{rm d}Δ_1/{rm d}p simeq -0.034~meV/GPa, {rm d}Δ_2/{rm d}p simeq -0.029~meV/GPa,} and {rm d}B_{rm c}(0)/{rm d}p = -2.65(1)~mT/GPa, respectively. The measured B_{rm c}(0) values plotted as a function of T_{rm c} follow an empirical scaling relation established for conventional type-I superconductors.

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

In a two-band superconductor, two qualitatively different fluctuation modes related to the gap modules contribute to free energy and heat capacity, in addition to the phase fluctuations. The first mode has divergent temperature behaviour since it accounts for the critical fluctuations around the phase transition point, Tc, along with pseudo-critical ones associated with former instability of the weaker-superconductivity component. The involvement of these two factors, competing under interband interaction, results in the Ginzburg number which increases with Tc non-monotonically, allowing the reduction up to 75%. This makes fluctuations effective for revealing additional superconducting component in the system. The second mode does not diverge, but has a jump at Tc, defined uniquely by the strength of interband interaction. This mode contributes fundamentally beyond critical domain.

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we focus on the hardening and coalescing process of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries in galaxy mergers. For simulations including different galaxy formation processes (i.e. gas cooling, star formation, SMBH accretion, stellar and AGN feedback), we systematically control the effect of stochastic eccentricity by fixing it to similar values during the SMBH hardening phase. We find a strong correlation between the SMBH merger time-scales and the presence of nuclear star formation. Throughout the galaxy merging process, gas condenses at the centre due to cooling and tidal torques, leading to nuclear star formation. These recently formed stars, which inherit low angular momenta from the gas, contribute to the loss cone and assist in the SMBH hardening via three-body interactions. Compared to non-radiative hydrodynamical runs, the SMBH merger time-scales measured from the runs including cooling, stellar and SMBH physical processes tend to be shortened by a factor of {sim}1.7. After fixing the eccentricity to the range of e sim 0.6--0.8 during the hardening phase, the simulations with AGN feedback reveal merger time-scales of {sim} 100--500 Myr for disc mergers and {sim} 1--2 Gyr for elliptical mergers. With a semi-analytical approach, we find that the torque interaction between the binary and its circumbinary disc has minimal impact on the shrinking of the binary orbit in our retrograde galaxy merger. Our results are useful in improving the modelling of SMBH merger time-scales and gravitational wave event rates.

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we investigate the orbital evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) during galaxy mergers. We simulate both disc and elliptical galaxy mergers using the KETJU code, which can simultaneously follow galaxy (hydro-)dynamics and small-scale SMBH dynamics with post-Newtonian corrections. With our SMBH binary subgrid model, we show how active galactic nuclei (AGNs) feedback affects galaxy properties and SMBH coalescence. We find that simulations without AGN feedback exhibit excessive star formation, resulting in merger remnants that deviate from observed properties. Kinetic AGN feedback proves more effective than thermal AGN feedback in expelling gas from the centre and quenching star formation. The different central galaxy properties, which are a result of distinct AGN feedback models, lead to varying rates of SMBH orbital decay. In the dynamical friction phase, galaxies with higher star formation and higher SMBH masses possess denser centres, become more resistant to tidal stripping, experience greater dynamical friction, and consequently form SMBH binaries earlier. As AGN feedback reduces gas densities in the centres, dynamical friction by stars dominates over gas. In the SMBH hardening phase, compared to elliptical mergers, disc mergers exhibit higher central densities of newly formed stars, resulting in accelerated SMBH hardening and shorter merger time-scales (i.e. lesssim 500 Myr versus gtrsim 1 Gyr). Our findings highlight the importance of AGN feedback and its numerical implementation in understanding the SMBH coalescing process, a key focus for low-frequency gravitational wave observatories.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

When pretrained VLA policies are fine-tuned through online RL, each rollout episode produces only a single binary outcome (success or failure), yet the actor update requires per-transition supervision. Existing approaches commonly reduce this sparse outcome to a single scalar reward or advantage signal, which conflates distinct forms of transition-level feedback and provides limited guidance once basic task success becomes achievable. First, a single scalar signal conflates the two objectives of viability and efficiency; once basic success is achieved, the binary label provides no gradient to distinguish efficient completions from slow ones. Second, real-world rollouts mix autonomous and intervention segments; naively assigning episode outcomes across these boundaries introduces incorrect credit assignment. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Advantage-Weighted Behavior Cloning (HABC), which trains separate critic heads for these two objectives on different data subsets and combines their outputs with a state-adaptive balance. A state-adaptive gate g_t merges their one-step advantages, prioritizing viability when success is uncertain and shifting to efficiency only when viability is high, and converts the result into per-transition weights on the actor loss. Intervention-aware credit assignment further restricts outcome labels to segments executed by the current policy, preventing supervision from leaking across intervention boundaries. In real-robot experiments on three contact-rich bimanual tasks, HABC raises success from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) baselines of 36%, 44%, and 12% to 92%, 88%, and 38%.

Neutron stars provide unique laboratories for probing physics of dense nuclear matter under extreme conditions. Their thermal and luminosity evolution reflects key internal properties such as the equation of state (EoS), nucleon superfluidity and superconductivity, envelope composition, and magnetic field, and so on. Recent observations [e.g., V. Abramkin et al., ApJ 924, 128 (2022)] have revealed unexpectedly warm old neutron stars, which cannot be explained by standard neutrino-photon cooling models. The failure of the standard cooling models implies the presence of additional internal heating mechanism. Building on the previous study [M. Fujiwara et al., JCAP 03, 051 (2024)], which proposed vortex creep heating (VCH) from the frictional motion of superfluid vortices as a viable mechanism, we extend the cooling framework to include both VCH and direct Urca (DUrca) processes. These are implemented in our code to explore their combined impact, particularly for massive neutron stars where DUrca operates. By varying rotational parameters (P, P, P_0), EoS models (APR, BSk24), pairing gaps, and envelope compositions, we examine how heating-cooling interplay shapes the temperature evolution. Our results show that VCH can substantially mitigate the rapid cooling driven by DUrca, offering new evolutionary pathways for massive neutron stars.

We study the chromatic number of typical triangle-free graphs with Theta left( n^{3/2} (log n)^{1/2} right) edges and establish the width of the scaling window for the transitions from chi = 3 to chi = 4 and from chi = 4 to chi = 5. The transition from 3- to 4-colorability has scaling window of width Theta(n^{4/3} (log n)^{-1/3}). To prove this, we show a high probability equivalence of the 3-colorability of a random triangle-free graph at this density and the satisfiability of an instance of bipartite random 2-SAT, for which we establish the width of the scaling window following the techniques of Bollob{\'a}s, Borgs, Chayes, Kim, and Wilson. The transition from 4- to 5-colorability has scaling window of width Theta(n^{3/2} (log n)^{-1/2}). To prove this, we show a high probability equivalence of the 4-colorability of a random triangle-free graph at this density and the simultaneous 2-colorability of two independent Erdos--R\'enyi random graphs. For this transition, we also establish the limiting probability of 4-colorability inside the scaling window.

We study a paradigm of coding for compression of the natural numbers via the zeta distribution and develop a statistical-mechanical interpretation, both in terms of Hagedorn systems and a Bose gas with energy levels given by logarithms of prime numbers. We also propose a simple coding scheme for the zeta distribution that nearly achieves the ideal code length. For block coding of vectors of natural numbers, we derive the micro-canonical entropy function and demonstrate its asymptotic linearity implying that its behavior is analogous to that of a Hagedorn system. We also derive the large deviations rate function, and provide a formula for the best coding parameter in the large deviations sense. We show that due the Hagedorn-type phase transition there is only partial equivalence of ensembles, due to the degeneration of the domain of the partition function.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We study the chemical distance of supercritical Bernoulli percolation on Z^d. Recently, Dembin [Dem22] showed that the chemical distance exhibits sublinear variance, a phenomenon now referred to as superconcentration. In this article, we establish an equivalence between this phenomenon and chaotic behavior of geodesics under small perturbations of the configuration, thereby confirming Chatterjee's general principle relating anomalous fluctuations to chaos in the context of Bernoulli percolation. Our methods rely on a dynamical version of the effective radius, refining the notion first proposed in [CN25], in order to measure the co-influence of a given edge whose weight may be infinite. Together with techniques from the theory of lattice animals, this approach allows us to quantify the total co-influence of edges in terms of the overlap between original and perturbed geodesics.

Transformers trained on modular arithmetic exhibit sharp transitions between memorization, generalization, and collapse. We show that weight decay acts as a scalar empirical control parameter for these regimes, and introduce two cheap online diagnostics, mean pairwise attention-head cosine similarity and entropy standard deviation, that track training dynamics from attention activations alone and complement loss-landscape diagnostics at lower compute cost. Across eleven experimental conditions and three model scales (0.82M to 85M parameters), the weight-decay axis separates memorization, developmental grokking, and collapse. A near-transition logistic fit localizes the memorization-to-developmental boundary at λ_c=0.0158 (95% CI [0.0109, 0.0200], N=210); a power-law fit gives an empirical exponent ν=0.757 (CI [0.725, 0.799]). Reference exponents ν=1/2 and 3D Ising νapprox 0.63 lie outside this empirical CI under our four-bin grid, so we report ν as empirical and defer universality-class identification to denser finite-size-scaling work. A horizon-matched multi-task replication (n=280, four modular operations) preserves the weight-decay control pattern; a paired attention-head re-initialization experiment at λ=0.05 changes Phase-2 amplitude (Cohen's d=-1.190, n=10, p_t=4.5 times 10^{-3}), while matched weight-norm clipping does not. Three cross-architecture probes (4L MLP, 4L LSTM, and 4L Mamba; each n=70) replicate the weight-decay-controlled transition with architecture-specific λ_c values. Main diagnostic claims are scoped to modular arithmetic in small transformer attention models; the non-attention experiments are scope probes, and architecture-wide, language-model, and universality-class claims are out of scope.

An accurate description of the scalar potential at finite temperature is crucial for studying cosmological first-order phase transitions (FOPT) in the early Universe. At finite temperatures, a precise treatment of thermal resummations is essential, as bosonic fields encounter significant infrared issues that can compromise standard perturbative approaches. The Partial Dressing (or the tadpole resummation) method provides a self consistent resummation of higher order corrections, allowing the computation of thermal masses and the effective potential including the proper Boltzmann suppression factors and without relying on any high-temperature approximation. We systematically compare the Partial dressing resummation scheme results with the Parwani and Arnold Espinosa (AE) ones to investigate the thermal phase transition dynamics in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). Our findings reveal that different resummation prescriptions can significantly alter the nature of the phase transition within the same region of parameter space, confirming the differences that have already been noticed between the Parwani and AE schemes. Notably, the more refined resummation prescription, the Partial Dressing scheme, does not support symmetry non-restoration in 2HDM at high temperatures observed using the AE prescription. Furthermore, we quantify the uncertainties in the stochastic gravitational wave (GW) spectrum from an FOPT due to variations in resummation methods, illustrating their role in shaping theoretical predictions for upcoming GW experiments. Finally, we discuss the capability of the High-Luminosity LHC and proposed GW experiments to probe the FOEWPT-favored region of the parameter space.

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating partial differential equation (PDE) information into the learning process. Much of this work has focused on relatively ``easy'' PDE operators (e.g., elliptic and parabolic), with less emphasis on relatively ``hard'' PDE operators (e.g., hyperbolic). Within numerical PDEs, the latter problem class requires control of a type of volume element or conservation constraint, which is known to be challenging. Delivering on the promise of SciML requires seamlessly incorporating both types of problems into the learning process. To address this issue, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating conservation constraints into a generic SciML architecture. To do so, ProbConserv combines the integral form of a conservation law with a Bayesian update. We provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv on learning with the Generalized Porous Medium Equation (GPME), a widely-applicable parameterized family of PDEs that illustrates the qualitative properties of both easier and harder PDEs. ProbConserv is effective for easy GPME variants, performing well with state-of-the-art competitors; and for harder GPME variants it outperforms other approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with shocks and heteroscedasticities. In each case, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks.

This letter summarizes and proves the concept of bounded-input bounded-state (BIBS) stability for weight convergence of a broad family of in-parameter-linear nonlinear neural architectures as it generally applies to a broad family of incremental gradient learning algorithms. A practical BIBS convergence condition results from the derived proofs for every individual learning point or batches for real-time applications.

For a family of two-matrix models \[ 1{2} Tr(A^2+B^2) - g{4} Tr(A^4+B^4) - cases h{2} Tr( A BA B) \\ h{4} Tr( A BA B+ ABBA ) \\ h{2} Tr( A B BA ) cases \] with hermitian A and B, we provide, in each case, a Monte Carlo estimate of the boundary of the maximal convergence domain in the (h,g)-plane. The results are discussed comparing with exact solutions (in agreement with the only analytically solved case) and phase diagrams obtained by means of the functional renormalization group.

For decades, researchers have developed task-specific models to address scientific challenges across diverse disciplines. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown enormous capabilities in handling general tasks; however, these models encounter difficulties in addressing real-world scientific problems, particularly in domains involving large-scale numerical data analysis, such as experimental high energy physics. This limitation is primarily due to BPE tokenization's inefficacy with numerical data. In this paper, we propose a task-agnostic architecture, BBT-Neutron, which employs a binary tokenization method to facilitate pretraining on a mixture of textual and large-scale numerical experimental data. We demonstrate the application of BBT-Neutron to Jet Origin Identification (JoI), a critical categorization challenge in high-energy physics that distinguishes jets originating from various quarks or gluons. Our results indicate that BBT-Neutron achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art task-specific JoI models. Furthermore, we examine the scaling behavior of BBT-Neutron's performance with increasing data volume, suggesting the potential for BBT-Neutron to serve as a foundational model for particle physics data analysis, with possible extensions to a broad spectrum of scientific computing applications for Big Science experiments, industrial manufacturing and spacial computing. The project code is available at https://github.com/supersymmetry-technologies/bbt-neutron.

We present a comprehensive numerical study of a six-state clock model with a long-range dipolar type interaction. This model is motivated by the ferroelectric orders in the multiferroic hexagonal manganites. At low temperatures, trimerization of local atomic structures leads to six distinct but energetically degenerate structural distortion, which can be modeled by a six-state clock model. Moreover, the atomic displacements in the trimerized state further produce a local electric polarization whose sign depends on whether the clock variable is even or odd. These induced electric dipoles, which can be modeled by emergent Ising degrees of freedom, interact with each other via long-range dipolar interactions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to investigate low temperature phases resulting from the competing interactions. Upon lowering temperature, the system undergoes two Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) transitions, characteristic of the standard six-state clock model in two dimensions. The dipolar interaction between emergent Ising spins induces a first-order transition into a ground state characterized by a three-fold degenerate stripe order. The intermediate phase between the discontinuous and the second BKT transition corresponds to a maze-like hexagonal liquid with short-range stripe ordering. Moreover, this intermediate phase also exhibits an unusual ferromagnetic order with two adjacent clock variables occupying the two types of stripes of the labyrinthine pattern.

We propose a novel method to probe the persistent hints of Lepton Flavour Universality violation observed in semileptonic B decays. Relying on the specific properties of the Belle II experiment, it consists in comparing the inclusive rates of Υ(4S) to e^pm μ^mp X, Υ(4S) to μ^pm τ_{rm had}^mp X and Υ(4S) to e^pm τ_{rm had}^mp X. We show that such a measurement can be directly related to the ratio R(X)_{τell} equiv Γ(bto X τν) / Γ(b to X ell ν) (ell=e or μ), once appropriate experimental cuts are applied to suppress the effects of neutral B mixing and leptons emitted through charm or tau decays. Such a measurement would thus constitute an additional and potentially competitive probe of Lepton Flavour Universality in bto cellν transitions, complementary to existing exclusive measurements, accessible in the Belle II environment.

Multi-Grid Back-Projection (MGBP) is a fully-convolutional network architecture that can learn to restore images and videos with upscaling artifacts. Using the same strategy of multi-grid partial differential equation (PDE) solvers this multiscale architecture scales computational complexity efficiently with increasing output resolutions. The basic processing block is inspired in the iterative back-projection (IBP) algorithm and constitutes a type of cross-scale residual block with feedback from low resolution references. The architecture performs in par with state-of-the-arts alternatives for regression targets that aim to recover an exact copy of a high resolution image or video from which only a downscale image is known. A perceptual quality target aims to create more realistic outputs by introducing artificial changes that can be different from a high resolution original content as long as they are consistent with the low resolution input. For this target we propose a strategy using noise inputs in different resolution scales to control the amount of artificial details generated in the output. The noise input controls the amount of innovation that the network uses to create artificial realistic details. The effectiveness of this strategy is shown in benchmarks and it is explained as a particular strategy to traverse the perception-distortion plane.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Proper weight initialization prior to training has historically been one of the key factors that helped kick off the deep learning revolution. Initialization is even more crucial in "reservoir computing", where the weights of a readout layer are learned linearly while the reservoir weights are fixed and largely determine the richness, stability and memory of the resulting dynamics. In the infinite-width limit it has been shown that meaningful initializations are those sitting at an effective critical point of the randomly initialized model. The phase transition is controlled by the weight variance g^2 and separates an ordered phase from a chaotic one where information progressively degrades. Here we derive a simple criterion to estimate the critical g_c for a broad class of recurrent architectures and we show that it closely tracks the gain at which a gated-RNN reservoir achieves peak performance on a chaotic forecasting task. Finally, we argue that our criterion can serve as a design principle for future initialization schemes.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are among the most powerful known sources of gravitational waves (GWs). Accordingly, these systems could dominate GW emission in the micro- and millihertz frequency range. Within this domain, SMBHs evolve rapidly and merge with each other. Dynamical friction from stars and gas at the centers of galaxies typically helps to bring together two SMBHs when they are at relatively far separations (approx kpc - 100 pc), but becomes less efficient at smaller separations. However, dark matter (DM) spikes around SMBHs could enhance dynamical friction at close separations and, thus, shorten the evolution times. In this paper, we simulate the effects of DM spikes on GW signals in the micro- to millihertz frequency range and confirm that the GW signals from SMBHBs with DM spikes can be clearly distinguished from those without any additional matter. Making use of the projected sensitivity curve of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), we forecast upper limits for the (dark) matter density for given future SMBHB observations. We then compare these thresholds with the theoretical density profiles expected for self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) spikes.

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that the observed nonlinear dynamics in these coupled systems rests within either underlying human or natural processes, rather than the rates at which they interact. Using adoption of agricultural diversification practices as a case study, we show how two stable management paradigms (one dominated by conventional, homogeneous practices, the other by diversified practices) can emerge purely from temporal feedbacks between human decisions and ecological responses. We explore how this temporal mechanism of tipping points provides insight into designing more effective interventions that promote farmers transitions towards sustainable agriculture. Moreover, our flexible modeling framework could be applied to other cases to provide insight into numerous questions in social-ecological systems research and environmental policy.

The local structure of V_{2}O_{3}, an archetypal strongly correlated electron system that displays a metal-insulator transition around 160 K, has been investigated via pair distribution function (PDF) analysis of neutron and x-ray total scattering data. The rhombohedral-to-monoclinic structural phase transition manifests as an abrupt change on all length scales in the observed PDF. No monoclinic distortions of the local structure are found above the transition, although coexisting regions of phase-separated rhombohedral and monoclinic symmetry are observed between 150 K and 160 K. This lack of structural fluctuations above the transition contrasts with the known presence of magnetic fluctuations in the high-temperature state, suggesting that the lattice degree of freedom plays a secondary role behind the spin degree of freedom in the transition mechanism.

The Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) problem and its dynamic counterpart, the Schrödinger bridge (SB) problem, play an important role in modern machine learning, linking generative modeling with optimal transport theory. While recent advances in discrete diffusion and flow models have sparked growing interest in applying SB methods to discrete domains, there is still no reliable way to evaluate how well these methods actually solve the underlying problem. We address this challenge by introducing a benchmark for SB on discrete spaces. Our construction yields pairs of probability distributions with analytically known SB solutions, enabling rigorous evaluation. As a byproduct of building this benchmark, we obtain two new SB algorithms, DLightSB and DLightSB-M, and additionally extend prior related work to construct the α-CSBM algorithm. We demonstrate the utility of our benchmark by evaluating both existing and new solvers in high-dimensional discrete settings. This work provides the first step toward proper evaluation of SB methods on discrete spaces, paving the way for more reproducible future studies.

In this paper, we develop and implement an efficient asymptotic-preserving (AP) scheme to solve the gas mixture of Boltzmann equations under the disparate mass scaling relevant to the so-called "epochal relaxation" phenomenon. The disparity in molecular masses, ranging across several orders of magnitude, leads to significant challenges in both the evaluation of collision operators and the designing of time-stepping schemes to capture the multi-scale nature of the dynamics. A direct implementation of the spectral method faces prohibitive computational costs as the mass ratio increases due to the need to resolve vastly different thermal velocities. Unlike [I. M. Gamba, S. Jin, and L. Liu, Commun. Math. Sci., 17 (2019), pp. 1257-1289], we propose an alternative approach based on proper truncation of asymptotic expansions of the collision operators, which significantly reduces the computational complexity and works well for small varepsilon. By incorporating the separation of three time scales in the model's relaxation process [P. Degond and B. Lucquin-Desreux, Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci., 6 (1996), pp. 405-436], we design an AP scheme that captures the specific dynamics of the disparate mass model while maintaining computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme in handling large mass ratios of heavy and light species, as well as capturing the epochal relaxation phenomenon.

It has been proposed that the superconducting transition temperature T_{c} of an unconventional superconductor with a large pairing scale but strong phase fluctuations can be enhanced by coupling it to a metal. However, the general efficacy of this approach across different parameter regimes remains an open question. Using the dynamical cluster approximation, we study this question in a system composed of an attractive Hubbard layer in the intermediate coupling regime, where the magnitude of the attractive Coulomb interaction |U| is slightly larger than the bandwidth W, hybridized with a noninteracting metallic layer. We find that while the superconducting transition becomes more mean-field-like with increasing interlayer hopping, the superconducting transition temperature T_{c} exhibits a nonmonotonic dependence on the strength of the hybridization t_{perp}. This behavior arises from a reduction of the effective pairing interaction in the correlated layer that out-competes the growth in the intrinsic pair-field susceptibility induced by the coupling to the metallic layer. We find that the largest T_{c} inferred here for the composite system is below the maximum value currently estimated for the isolated negative-U Hubbard model.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

The superfluid phase transition dynamics and associated spontaneous vortex formation with the crossing of the critical temperature in a disk geometry is studied in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence by solving the Einstein-Abelian-Higgs model in an AdS_4 black hole. For a slow quench, the vortex density admits a universal scaling law with the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM), while for fast quenches, the density shows a universal scaling behavior as a function of the final temperature, that lies beyond the KZM prediction. The vortex number distribution in both the power-law and saturation regimes can be approximated by a normal distribution. However, the study of the universal scaling of the cumulants reveals non-normal features and indicates that vortex statistics in the newborn superfluid is best described by the Poisson binomial distribution, previously predicted in the KZM regime [Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 240602 (2020)]. This is confirmed by studying the cumulant scalings as a function of the quench time and the quench depth. Our work supports the existence of a universal defect number distribution that accommodates the KZM scaling, its breakdown at fast quenches, and the additional universal scaling laws as a function of the final value of the control parameter.

In this paper, we establish an analytic framework for studying set-valued backward stochastic differential equations (set-valued BSDE), motivated largely by the current studies of dynamic set-valued risk measures for multi-asset or network-based financial models. Our framework will make use of the notion of Hukuhara difference between sets, in order to compensate the lack of "inverse" operation of the traditional Minkowski addition, whence the vector space structure in set-valued analysis. While proving the well-posedness of a class of set-valued BSDEs, we shall also address some fundamental issues regarding generalized Aumann-Itô integrals, especially when it is connected to the martingale representation theorem. In particular, we propose some necessary extensions of the integral that can be used to represent set-valued martingales with non-singleton initial values. This extension turns out to be essential for the study of set-valued BSDEs.

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing (β_c) that, compared to the network's current state (β), yields a dynamic ratio β(t)/β_c(t): a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, β/β_c provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.

A recent study shows that if the power spectra (PS) of accreting compact objects consist of a combination of Lorentzian functions that are coherent in different energy bands but incoherent with each other, the same is true for the Real and Imaginary parts of the cross spectrum (CS). Using this idea, we discovered imaginary quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in NICER observations of the black hole candidate MAXI J1820+070. The imaginary QPOs appear as narrow features with a small Real and large Imaginary part in the CS but are not significantly detected in the PS when they overlap in frequency with other variability components. The coherence function drops and the phase lags increase abruptly at the frequency of the imaginary QPO. We show that the multi-Lorentzian model that fits the PS and CS of the source in two energy bands correctly reproduces the lags and the coherence, and that the narrow drop of the coherence is caused by the interaction of the imaginary QPO with other variability components. The imaginary QPO appears only in the decay of the outburst, during the transition from the high-soft to the low-hard state of MAXI J1820+070, and its frequency decreases from approximately 5 Hz to around 1 Hz as the source spectrum hardens. We also analysed the earlier observations of the transition, where no narrow features were seen, and we identified a QPO in the PS that appears to evolve into the imaginary QPO as the source hardens. As for the type-B and C QPOs in this source, the rms spectrum of the imaginary QPO increases with energy. The lags of the imaginary QPO are similar to those of the type-B and C QPOs above 2 keV but differ from the lags of those other QPOs below that energy. While the properties of this imaginary QPO resemble those of type-C QPOs, we cannot rule out that it is a new type of QPO.

We investigate the effects of the sharpness of the phase transition between hadronic matter and quark matter on various properties of neutron stars. We construct hybrid equations of state by combining a hadronic model with a quark model using a Gaussian function. This approach introduces a smooth transition characterized by two parameters: one representing the overpressure relative to the first-order phase transition point, and the other related to the range over which the hybrid region extends in baryon chemical potential. We find that the sharpness of the phase transition significantly influences the equation of state, which can deviate by several tens of MeV fm^{-3} from the one with a sharp first-order transition. The speed of sound exhibits diverse behaviors, including drastic drops, pronounced peaks, and oscillatory patterns, depending on the sharpness parameters. In terms of stellar structure, while the maximum neutron star mass remains largely unaffected by the sharpness of the phase transition, the stellar radii can vary significantly. Smoother transitions lead to a leftward shift (up to 1 km) of the mass-radius curve segment corresponding to hybrid stars. The tidal deformability decreases with smoother transitions, especially for higher-mass stars. Our results are quite general and do not qualitatively depend on the specific hadronic and quark matter models employed. In fact, the hybrid equation of state and stellar properties derived from microscopic models of quark-hadron pasta phases display the same behavior as described above.

We present a smoothly broken power law functional form (that we refer to as a Broken Neural Scaling Law (BNSL)) that accurately models & extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as amount of compute used for training (or inference), number of model parameters, training dataset size, model input size, number of training steps, or upstream performance varies) for various architectures & for each of various tasks within a large & diverse set of upstream & downstream tasks, in zero-shot, prompted, & finetuned settings. This set includes large-scale vision, language, audio, video, diffusion, generative modeling, multimodal learning, contrastive learning, AI alignment, AI capabilities, robotics, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, continual learning, transfer learning, uncertainty estimation / calibration, OOD detection, adversarial robustness, distillation, sparsity, retrieval, quantization, pruning, fairness, molecules, computer programming/coding, math word problems, "emergent phase transitions", arithmetic, supervised learning, unsupervised/self-supervised learning, & reinforcement learning (single agent & multi-agent). When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set. Moreover, this functional form accurately models & extrapolates scaling behavior that other functional forms are incapable of expressing such as the nonmonotonic transitions present in the scaling behavior of phenomena such as double descent & the delayed, sharp inflection points present in the scaling behavior of tasks such as arithmetic. Lastly, we use this functional form to glean insights about the limit of the predictability of scaling behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/ethancaballero/broken_neural_scaling_laws

Scientific discovery is not only answer generation but revision of the representational regime in which evidence, artifacts, operations, and verifiers are typed. We develop a category-theoretic account of agentic discovery for materials science. In a fixed regime b with schema category S_b, the system state is a copresheaf I_t: S_b -> Set, and provenance is the category of elements \int_{S_b} I_t. Fixed-regime operation is an update on such states, endofunctorial only when provenance-preserving refinements are specified and preserved. Discovery is instead a verified regime transition u: S_b -> S_b': old artifacts are preserved, transported by the left Kan extension Lan_u I_t, and compared with the post-transition state to identify residual content beyond functorial transport. This separates retrieval, search, and discovery without subjective novelty. We instantiate the framework in two systems. In Builder/Breaker, a protein-mechanics world model is revised under a Minimum Description Length gate; the accepted law expresses within-chain flexibility as all-mode elastic compliance conditioned by slow collective-mode participation, or mode-conditioned compliance. In CategoryScienceClaw, typed skills, artifacts, open needs, workflow mutation, gates, stress tests, and public discourse become a proof-carrying knowledge-computation graph. A fiber-network example records candidate models, rejected alternatives, an AIC gate, perturbation tests, and an accepted orientation-tensor anisotropic stiffness surrogate over an isotropic fiber-count descriptor. Together, the cases show how category theory can be both a mathematical language for discovery and an engineering specification for self-revising AI discovery systems.

In this paper, we examine the thermodynamic behavior of a quantum harmonic oscillator with a position-dependent mass (PDM), where spatial inhomogeneity is modeled through a deformation parameter α. Based on the exact energy spectrum, we explore the resulting thermodynamic quantities and superstatistics. Our findings reveal that increasing α leads to a decrease in entropy and specific heat, reflecting a confinement-induced reduction in the number of accessible states. The partition function and free energy exhibit smooth behavior across all parameter regimes, indicating the absence of critical phase transitions. This study underscores the influence of mass deformation on quantum thermal responses and demonstrates that, while the overall thermodynamic trends are consistent with those reported in the literature, certain distinctive features emerge due to the specific form of the deformation.

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

Transition videos play a crucial role in media production, enhancing the flow and coherence of visual narratives. Traditional methods like morphing often lack artistic appeal and require specialized skills, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advances in diffusion model-based video generation offer new possibilities for creating transitions but face challenges such as poor inter-frame relationship modeling and abrupt content changes. We propose a novel training-free Transition Video Generation (TVG) approach using video-level diffusion models that addresses these limitations without additional training. Our method leverages Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to model latent representations, ensuring smooth and dynamic transitions between frames. Additionally, we introduce interpolation-based conditional controls and a Frequency-aware Bidirectional Fusion (FBiF) architecture to enhance temporal control and transition reliability. Evaluations of benchmark datasets and custom image pairs demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating high-quality smooth transition videos. The code are provided in https://sobeymil.github.io/tvg.com.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

We use the AdS/CFT correspondence to study the thermodynamics of massive N=2 supersymmetric hypermultiplets coupled to N=4 supersymmetric SU(Nc) Yang-Mills theory in the limits of large Nc and large 't Hooft coupling. In particular, we study the theory at finite baryon number density. At zero temperature, we present an exact expression for the hypermultiplets' leading-order contribution to the free energy, and in the supergravity description we clarify which D-brane configuration is appropriate for any given value of the chemical potential. We find a second-order phase transition when the chemical potential equals the mass. At finite temperature, we present an exact expression for the hypermultiplets' leading-order contribution to the free energy at zero mass.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

Present-day disc galaxies often exhibit distinct thin and thick discs. The formation mechanisms of the two discs and the timing of their onset remain open questions. To address these questions, we select edge-on galaxies from flagship JWST programs and investigate their disc structures in rest-frame, near-infrared bands. For the first time, we identify thick and thin discs at cosmological distances, dating back over 10 Gyr, and investigate their decomposed structural properties. We classify galaxies into those that require two (i.e. thin and thick) discs and those well fitted by a single disc. Disc radial sizes and vertical heights correlate strongly with the total galaxy mass and/or disc mass, independent of cosmic time. The structure of the thick disc resembles discs found in single-disc galaxies, suggesting that galaxies form a thick disc first, followed by the subsequent formation of an embedded thin disc. The transition from single to double discs occurred around 8 Gyr ago in high-mass galaxies (10^{9.75} - 10^{11}M_odot), earlier than the transition which occurred 4 Gyr ago in low-mass galaxies (10^{9.0} - 10^{9.75}M_odot), indicating sequential formation proceeds in a "downsizing" manner. Toomre Q-regulated disc formation explains the delayed thin disc formation in low-mass galaxies, leading to the observed anti-correlation between the thick-to-thin disc mass ratio and the total galaxy mass. Despite the dominant sequential formation, observations suggest that thick discs may continue to build up mass alongside their thin-disc counterparts.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erdős-Rényi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an arbitrary planted subgraph Γ= Γ_n in an Erdős-Rényi random graph G(n, q_n), where the edge probability within Γ is p_n. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities p_n and q_n are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting Γ, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on Γ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of p_n and q_n as functions of n. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where q_n = Θ(n^{-α}) and p_n-q_n =Θ(q_n), with αin[0,2], as well as the critical regime where p_n=1-o(1) and q_n = Θ(n^{-α}), both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of Γ. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus farand many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of q_n.

We evaluate electromagnetic-response observables in a half-filled Chern band, across a topological phase transition between a composite Fermi liquid (CFL) and a Fermi liquid (FL) phase. While a sharp gapped plasma mode exists deep in the CFL phase, we demonstrate that it is damped near the proposed continuous phase transition between CFL and FL. This plasmon-damping phenomenon originates from emergent gauge fields and a Dirac-fermion-like spectrum. Similar features also occur in other continuous deconfined topological phase transitions, such as the Laughlin to superfluid transition in a bosonic system. In particular, this damping behavior extends over a finite range across the phase boundary, and, hence, we expect it to persist even when the transition is weakly first-order. Furthermore, we analyze the behavior of the Drude weight, the wavevector-dependent conductivity, and the chiral mirror effect across these topological phase transitions.

In this study, we analyze the ghost dark energy model in Brans-Dicke cosmology in the framework of a flat Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker universe. We consider an interaction between ghost dark energy and dark matter with a sign-changeable interaction term. To discuss the cosmological implications of the model, we consider a well-motivated logarithmic form of the Brans-Dicke scalar field. By deriving the cosmological evolution equations, we obtain the cosmological parameters such as the equation of state and deceleration parameters. We analyze the behavior of the cosmological parameters by plotting their graphs against the redshift parameter (z). We observe that the equation of state parameter shows quintessence-like behaviour during present and future epochs; however, phantom-like behavior is also possible for suitable values of the model parameters. Analysis of the deceleration parameter shows a smooth recent phase transition of the universe (deceleration to acceleration). An interesting result we observe is the decelerated expansion of the universe in the far future, i.e, the universe experiences another phase transition in the future. The physical significance of the well-known cosmological plane (w_D-w_D' plane) is discussed in our model. We observe that the trajectories start in the freezing region with the same initial behavior, deviate from each other during the evolution and ends in the thawing region. Finally, we perform a detailed thermodynamic analysis and demonstrate that the generalized second law of thermodynamics is satisfied within the present interacting ghost dark energy model.

Using the example of configurations generated with the worm algorithm for the two-dimensional Ising model, we propose renormalization group (RG) transformations, inspired by the tensor RG, that can be applied to sets of images. We relate criticality to the logarithmic divergence of the largest principal component. We discuss the changes in link occupation under the RG transformation, suggest ways to obtain data collapse, and compare with the two state tensor RG approximation near the fixed point.

This paper studies the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a causal dynamical system where both the target variable of interest and the inputs evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains e.g. system biology and operational research. Dynamic Causal Bayesian Optimization (DCBO) brings together ideas from sequential decision making, causal inference and Gaussian process (GP) emulation. DCBO is useful in scenarios where all causal effects in a graph are changing over time. At every time step DCBO identifies a local optimal intervention by integrating both observational and past interventional data collected from the system. We give theoretical results detailing how one can transfer interventional information across time steps and define a dynamic causal GP model which can be used to quantify uncertainty and find optimal interventions in practice. We demonstrate how DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competing approaches in multiple settings and applications.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

A droplet impacting a deep fluid bath is as common as rain over the ocean. If the impact is sufficiently gentle, the mediating air layer remains intact, and the droplet may rebound completely from the interface. In this work, we experimentally investigate the role of translational bath motion on the bouncing to coalescence transition. Over a range of parameters, we find that the relative bath motion systematically decreases the normal Weber number required to transition from bouncing to merging. Direct numerical simulations demonstrate that the depression created during impact combined with the translational motion of the bath enhances the air layer drainage on the upstream side of the droplet, ultimately favoring coalescence. A simple geometric argument is presented that rationalizes the collapse of the experimental threshold data, extending what is known for the case of axisymmetric normal impacts to the more general 3D scenario of interest herein.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Massive stars often evolve in binary systems, in which binary interactions significantly affect their evolution. Massive stars in the Galaxy serve as valuable testbeds for this due to their proximity. We computed the evolution of more than 38000 galactic binary systems with initial primary star masses of 5...100 Msun. In this paper, we aim to investigate the surface properties of post-mass transfer mass donor and mass gainer stars through core hydrogen burning, core helium burning, and for the pre-supernova stage. The models are computed with MESA, incorporating detailed stellar and binary physics, including internal differential rotation, magnetic angular momentum transport, mass-dependent overshooting, stellar wind mass-loss, mass and angular momentum transfer and tidal interaction. They incorporate a new extensive nuclear network for hydrogen burning, which allows us to track the full range of hydrogen burning nucleosynthesis products, from the light elements to aluminum. The widest, non-interacting binary models in our grid effectively serve as single star models. We find that mass gainers and mass donors may evolve through long-lived blue and yellow supergiant stages during core helium burning where single stars of the same mass remain red supergiants. Furthermore, some of our gainers evolve into more luminous yellow and blue supergiants prior to core collapse than single stars, while some donors end their life as red or yellow supergiants, showing a rich diversity in supernova progenitors. We show that the surface elemental and isotopic abundances carry valuable information about a star's evolutionary history and can be used to distinguish binary interaction products from single stars. Our binary model grid may serve as a tool for identifying post-mass transfer stars and supernovae, and holds potential for population studies, supernova modeling, and guidance of future observations.

We present the new public version of the KETJU supermassive black hole (SMBH) dynamics module, as implemented into GADGET-4. KETJU adds a small region around each SMBH where the dynamics of the SMBHs and stellar particles are integrated using an algorithmically regularised integrator instead of the leapfrog integrator with gravitational softening used by GADGET-4. This enables modelling SMBHs as point particles even during close interactions with stellar particles or other SMBHs, effectively removing the spatial resolution limitation caused by gravitational softening. KETJU also includes post-Newtonian corrections, which allows following the dynamics of SMBH binaries to sub-parsec scales and down to tens of Schwarzschild radii. Systems with multiple SMBHs are also supported, with the code also including the leading non-linear cross terms that appear in the post-Newtonian equations for such systems. We present tests of the code showing that it correctly captures, at sufficient mass resolution, the sinking driven by dynamical friction and binary hardening driven by stellar scattering. We also present an example application demonstrating how the code can be applied to study the dynamics of SMBHs in mergers of multiple galaxies and the effect they have on the properties of the surrounding galaxy. We expect that the presented KETJU SMBH dynamics module can also be straightforwardly incorporated into other codes similar to GADGET-4, which would allow coupling small-scale SMBH dynamics to the rich variety of galactic physics models that exist in the literature.

We present the first public cosmic-web environment catalog built on any DESI data release. Using ASTRA (Algorithm for Stochastic Topological RAnking), we classify each object in the DESI Early Data Release into void, sheet, filament, or knot by combining observed positions with matched random catalogs, without reconstructing a continuous density field. We apply this method to four DESI extragalactic tracers (BGS, LRG, ELG, and QSO) across the 20 EDR rosettes (sim 175 deg^2 total), running 100 realizations per tracer-zone pair to derive per-object membership probabilities and classification entropies. We calibrate the classification thresholds using BGS as an anchor to match the volume-filling fractions reported for GAMA, and recover a physically consistent web morphology across all tracers. For BGS, the resulting web-type fractions and the environmental dependence of star formation are consistent with GAMA, COSMOS, and SDSS-based references, validating the method against established benchmarks. A normalized mutual information analysis on BGS reveals a clear dependence of the statistical associations between galaxy color, stellar mass, and specific star formation rate across environments. These results provide a new observational baseline for galaxy evolution studies with DESI. All data products and the open-source pipeline are publicly available.

We present here self-consistent zoom-in simulations of massive galaxies forming in a full cosmological setting. The simulations are run with an updated version of the KETJU code, which is able to resolve the gravitational dynamics of their supermassive black holes, while simultaneously modelling the large-scale astrophysical processes in the surrounding galaxies, such as gas cooling, star formation and stellar and AGN feedback. The KETJU code is able to accurately model the complex behaviour of multiple SMBHs, including dynamical friction, stellar scattering and gravitational wave emission, and also to resolve Lidov-Kozai oscillations that naturally occur in hierarchical triplet SMBH systems. In general most of the SMBH binaries form at moderately high eccentricities, with typical values in the range of e =0.6-0.95, meaning that the circular binary models that are commonly used in the literature are insufficient for capturing the typical binary evolution.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

In bipartite networks, community structures are restricted to being disassortative, in that nodes of one type are grouped according to common patterns of connection with nodes of the other type. This makes the stochastic block model (SBM), a highly flexible generative model for networks with block structure, an intuitive choice for bipartite community detection. However, typical formulations of the SBM do not make use of the special structure of bipartite networks. Here we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of the SBM and a corresponding algorithm to efficiently find communities in bipartite networks which parsimoniously chooses the number of communities. The biSBM improves community detection results over general SBMs when data are noisy, improves the model resolution limit by a factor of 2, and expands our understanding of the complicated optimization landscape associated with community detection tasks. A direct comparison of certain terms of the prior distributions in the biSBM and a related high-resolution hierarchical SBM also reveals a counterintuitive regime of community detection problems, populated by smaller and sparser networks, where nonhierarchical models outperform their more flexible counterpart.

Type II orbital migration is a key process to regulate the mass and semimajor axis distribution of exoplanetary giant planets. The conventional formula of type II migration generally predicts too rapid inward migration to reconcile with the observed pile-up of gas giant beyond 1 au. Analyzing the recent high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations by Li et al. (2024) and Pan et al. (2025) that show robust outward migration of a gas accreting planet, we here clarify the condition for the outward migration to occur and derive a general semi-analytical formula that can be applied for broad range of planet mass and disk conditions. The striking outward migration is caused by azimuthal asymmetry in corotation torque exerted from cicumplanetary disk regions (connecting to horseshoe flow) that is produced by the planetary gas accretion, while the conventional inward migration model is based on radial asymmetry in the torques from the circumstellar protoplanetry disk. We found that the azimuthal asymmetry dominates and the migration is outward, when the gap depth defined by the surface density reduction factor of 1/(1+K') is in the range of 0.03 lesssim K' lesssim 50. Using simple models with the new formula, we demonstrate that the outward migration plays an important role in shaping the mass and semimajor axis distribution of gas giants. The concurrent dependence of planets' accretion rate and migration direction on their masses and disk properties potentially reproduces the observed pile-up of exoplanetary gas giants beyond 1 au, although more detailed planet population synthesis calculations are needed in the future.

Standard game theory explains cooperation in repeated games through conditional strategies such as Tit-for-Tat (TfT), but these require continuous computation that imposes physical costs on embodied agents. We propose a three-layer Body-Reservoir Governance (BRG) architecture: (1) a body reservoir (echo state network) whose d-dimensional state performs implicit inference over interaction history, serving as both decision-maker and anomaly detector, (2) a cognitive filter providing costly strategic tools activated on demand, and (3) a metacognitive governance layer with receptivity parameter αin [0,1]. At full body governance (α=1), closed-loop dynamics satisfy a self-consistency equation: cooperation is expressed as the reservoir's fixed point, not computed. Strategy complexity cost is defined as the KL divergence between the reservoir's state distribution and its habituated baseline. Body governance reduces this cost, with action variance decreasing up to 1600times with dimension d. A dynamic sentinel generates a composite discomfort signal from the reservoir's own state, driving adaptive α(t): near baseline during cooperation, rapidly dropping upon defection to activate cognitive retaliation. Overriding the body incurs thermodynamic cost proportional to internal state distortion. The sentinel achieves the highest payoff across all conditions, outperforming static body governance, TfT, and EMA baselines. A dimension sweep (d in {5,ldots,100}) shows implicit inference scales with bodily richness (23times to 1600times variance reduction), attributable to reservoir dynamics. A phase diagram in (d, τ_{env}) space reveals governance regime transitions near d approx 20. The framework reinterprets cooperation as the minimum-dissipation response of an adapted dynamical system -- emergent from embodied dynamics rather than computed.

The decay of metastable 'false vacuum' states via bubble nucleation plays a crucial role in many cosmological scenarios. Cold-atom analog experiments will soon provide the first empirical probes of this process, with potentially far-reaching implications for early-Universe cosmology and high-energy physics. However, an inevitable difference between these analog systems and the early Universe is that the former have a boundary. We show, using a combination of Euclidean calculations and real-time lattice simulations, that these boundaries generically cause rapid bubble nucleation on the edge of the experiment, obscuring the bulk nucleation that is relevant for cosmology. We demonstrate that implementing a high-density 'trench' region at the boundary completely eliminates this problem, and recovers the desired cosmological behavior. Our findings are relevant for ongoing efforts to probe vacuum decay in the laboratory, providing a practical solution to a key experimental obstacle.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Our aim is to contribute to quantum field theory (QFT) formalisms useful for descriptions of short time phenomena, dominant especially in heavy ion collisions. We formulate out-of-equilibrium QFT within the finite-time-path formalism (FTP) and renormalization theory (RT). The potential conflict of FTP and RT is investigated in g phi^3 QFT, by using the retarded/advanced (R/A) basis of Green functions and dimensional renormalization (DR). For example, vertices immediately after (in time) divergent self-energy loops do not conserve energy, as integrals diverge. We "repair" them, while keeping d<4, to obtain energy conservation at those vertices. Already in the S-matrix theory, the renormalized, finite part of Feynman self-energy Sigma_{F}(p_0) does not vanish when |p_0|rightarrowinfty and cannot be split to retarded and advanced parts. In the Glaser--Epstein approach, the causality is repaired in the composite object G_F(p_0)Sigma_{F}(p_0). In the FTP approach, after repairing the vertices, the corresponding composite objects are G_R(p_0)Sigma_{R}(p_0) and Sigma_{A}(p_0)G_A(p_0). In the limit drightarrow 4, one obtains causal QFT. The tadpole contribution splits into diverging and finite parts. The diverging, constant component is eliminated by the renormalization condition langle 0|phi|0rangle =0 of the S-matrix theory. The finite, oscillating energy-nonconserving tadpole contributions vanish in the limit trightarrow infty .

In settings such as fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, neural networks are often adapted under distribution shift. Standard adaptation methods typically optimize the target objective directly, inducing an abrupt change from the source training objective. This abrupt transition can distort learned representations, including features that may still be useful for the new task. We investigate whether a more gradual transition can improve adaptation. We propose loss smoothing, a simple approach that interpolates between the source and target training objectives at the start of adaptation. This smooth transition helps to preserve useful features from the source distribution while still enabling the model to specialize to the target distribution. Across controlled supervised shifts, pretrained vision adaptation, offline-to-online and online reinforcement learning, and language model fine-tuning, we find that loss smoothing consistently improves performance, suggesting that smoother objective transitions are a broadly useful tool for model adaptation.

We explore the consequences of multi-trace deformations in applications of gauge-gravity duality to condensed matter physics. We find that they introduce a powerful new "knob" that can implement spontaneous symmetry breaking, and can be used to construct a new type of holographic superconductor. This knob can be tuned to drive the critical temperature to zero, leading to a new quantum critical point. We calculate nontrivial critical exponents, and show that fluctuations of the order parameter are `locally' quantum critical in the disordered phase. Most notably the dynamical critical exponent is determined by the dimension of an operator at the critical point. We argue that the results are robust against quantum corrections and discuss various generalizations.

In heterogeneous networks of coupled oscillators, phase frustration typically prevents the emergence of synchronization in the Sakaguchi--Kuramoto (SK) model. In this study, we propose an analytical framework to overcome this barrier and induce complete synchronization at a specified small coupling value in oscillators governed by phase-frustrated bi-harmonic coupling. We derive an optimal set of natural frequencies that is robust against added noise and correlated with the network degree heterogeneity, along with the parameters involved in the bi-harmonic coupling function that lead to complete synchronization (r = 1). In addition, we find complete synchronization transitions accompanied by hysteresis in scale-free networks, indicating a first-order (discontinuous) phase transition, whereas Erdős--Rényi networks exhibit complete synchronization through a second-order (continuous) phase transition. Furthermore, we use the mean-field approximation in the presence of optimal frequencies to determine the critical coupling strength associated with the synchronization transition in the pure second-harmonic Sakaguchi--Kuramoto model. Here, the obtained optimal natural frequencies scale linearly with the node degree, and the critical coupling strength for the onset of synchronization is derived analytically from the self-consistent equations. In this specific regime, we observe a perfectly ordered two-cluster synchronized state. These findings remain robust for higher-order harmonic coupling schemes, as well as across a diverse range of synthetic and empirical networks, including scale-free, Erdős--Rényi, Zachary Karate Club, and the C.~elegans neural network, demonstrating their general applicability.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

The transition to hydrogen powered transportation requires regionally tailored yet scalable infrastructure planning. This study presents the first Texas specific, multi-period mixed integer optimization model for hydrogen transportation from 2025 to 2050, addressing challenges in infrastructure phasing, asset coordination, and multimodal logistics. The framework introduces three innovations: (1) phased deployment with delayed investment constraints, (2) dynamic modeling of fleet aging and replacement, and (3) a clustering-based hub structure enabling adaptive two-stage hydrogen delivery. Simulations show pipeline deployment supports up to 94.8% of hydrogen flow by 2050 under high demand, reducing transport costs by 23% compared to vehicle-based systems. However, one-year construction delays reduce pipeline coverage by over 60%, shifting reliance to costlier road transport. While the study focuses on Texas, its modular design and adaptable inputs apply to other regions. It provides a tool for policy makers and stakeholders to manage hydrogen transitions under logistical and economic constraints.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a popular formulation to train generative models for complex high dimensional data. The standard method for training GANs involves a gradient descent-ascent (GDA) procedure on a minimax optimization problem. This procedure is hard to analyze in general due to the nonlinear nature of the dynamics. We study the local dynamics of GDA for training a GAN with a kernel-based discriminator. This convergence analysis is based on a linearization of a non-linear dynamical system that describes the GDA iterations, under an isolated points model assumption from [Becker et al. 2022]. Our analysis brings out the effect of the learning rates, regularization, and the bandwidth of the kernel discriminator, on the local convergence rate of GDA. Importantly, we show phase transitions that indicate when the system converges, oscillates, or diverges. We also provide numerical simulations that verify our claims.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.