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Jul 8

Forecasting Lithium-Ion Battery Longevity with Limited Data Availability: Benchmarking Different Machine Learning Algorithms

As the use of Lithium-ion batteries continues to grow, it becomes increasingly important to be able to predict their remaining useful life. This work aims to compare the relative performance of different machine learning algorithms, both traditional machine learning and deep learning, in order to determine the best-performing algorithms for battery cycle life prediction based on minimal data. We investigated 14 different machine learning models that were fed handcrafted features based on statistical data and split into 3 feature groups for testing. For deep learning models, we tested a variety of neural network models including different configurations of standard Recurrent Neural Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Long Short Term Memory with and without attention mechanism. Deep learning models were fed multivariate time series signals based on the raw data for each battery across the first 100 cycles. Our experiments revealed that the machine learning algorithms on handcrafted features performed particularly well, resulting in 10-20% average mean absolute percentage error. The best-performing algorithm was the Random Forest Regressor, which gave a minimum 9.8% mean absolute percentage error. Traditional machine learning models excelled due to their capability to comprehend general data set trends. In comparison, deep learning models were observed to perform particularly poorly on raw, limited data. Algorithms like GRU and RNNs that focused on capturing medium-range data dependencies were less adept at recognizing the gradual, slow trends critical for this task. Our investigation reveals that implementing machine learning models with hand-crafted features proves to be more effective than advanced deep learning models for predicting the remaining useful Lithium-ion battery life with limited data availability.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 9, 2023

Persistent homology of the cosmic web. I: Hierarchical topology in $Λ$CDM cosmologies

Using a set of LambdaCDM simulations of cosmic structure formation, we study the evolving connectivity and changing topological structure of the cosmic web using state-of-the-art tools of multiscale topological data analysis (TDA). We follow the development of the cosmic web topology in terms of the evolution of Betti number curves and feature persistence diagrams of the three (topological) classes of structural features: matter concentrations, filaments and tunnels, and voids. The Betti curves specify the prominence of features as a function of density level, and their evolution with cosmic epoch reflects the changing network connections between these structural features. The persistence diagrams quantify the longevity and stability of topological features. In this study we establish, for the first time, the link between persistence diagrams, the features they show, and the gravitationally driven cosmic structure formation process. By following the diagrams' development over cosmic time, the link between the multiscale topology of the cosmic web and the hierarchical buildup of cosmic structure is established. The sharp apexes in the diagrams are intimately related to key transitions in the structure formation process. The apex in the matter concentration diagrams coincides with the density level at which, typically, they detach from the Hubble expansion and begin to collapse. At that level many individual islands merge to form the network of the cosmic web and a large number of filaments and tunnels emerge to establish its connecting bridges. The location trends of the apex possess a self-similar character that can be related to the cosmic web's hierarchical buildup. We find that persistence diagrams provide a significantly higher and more profound level of information on the structure formation process than more global summary statistics like Euler characteristic or Betti numbers.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 25, 2020

From Pixels to Newtons: Predicting In Vivo Joint Contact Forces from Monocular Video

Joint contact forces govern implant longevity, cartilage health, and rehabilitation outcomes, shaping who develops osteoarthritis, who recovers well from joint replacement, and who benefits from biomechanical interventions. Yet they remain measurable only invasively, in a few dozen patients with instrumented implants. I present a physics-free pipeline to predict instantaneous 3D hip and knee contact forces from an uncalibrated monocular video: no markers, force plates, electromyography, subject-specific imaging, or musculoskeletal model. Parametric body meshes are recovered per frame, encoded as kinematic features, and decoded into forces by a transformer whose pose stream is adaptively modulated at every layer by body shape, joint, side, activity text, and self-supervised video tokens (V-JEPA 2), unifying hip and knee in a single model. Under leave-one-subject-out cross-validation across 26 patients and 25 activity categories from the in vivo OrthoLoad database, the pipeline matches the accuracy of subject-specific musculoskeletal simulations (0.32 pm 0.08 BW RMSE for hip; 0.23 pm 0.03 BW for knee) and resolves peak force changes smaller than those reported for gait retraining and osteoarthritis progression. Applied zero-shot to an independent instrumented cohort, it rivals or outperforms prior published methods. Even without curated activity labels, video features alone preserve accuracy and enable end-to-end inference on raw footage. Driven by the predictor, a generative motion prior produces biomechanically plausible variants with reduced peak loading, rediscovering strategies from the predictive simulation literature. This pipeline establishes uncalibrated monocular video as a viable modality for estimating joint loading, opening a path toward retrospective analysis of archived clinical recordings, primary-care screening, and at-home rehabilitation tracking.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 3

Terminal Lucidity: Envisioning the Future of the Terminal

The Unix terminal, or just simply, the terminal, can be found being applied in almost every facet of computing. It is available across all major platforms and often integrated into other applications. Due to its ubiquity, even marginal improvements to the terminal have the potential to make massive improvements to productivity on a global scale. We believe that evolutionary improvements to the terminal, in its current incarnation as windowed terminal emulator, are possible and that developing a thorough understanding of issues that current terminal users face is fundamental to knowing how the terminal should evolve. In order to develop that understanding we have mined Unix and Linux Stack Exchange using a fully-reproducible method which was able to extract and categorize 91.0% of 1,489 terminal-related questions (from the full set of nearly 240,000 questions) without manual intervention. We present an analysis, to our knowledge the first of its kind, of windowed terminal-related questions posted over a 15-year period and viewed, in aggregate, approximately 40 million times. As expected, given its longevity, we find the terminal's many features being applied across a wide variety of use cases. We find evidence that the terminal, as windowed terminal emulator, has neither fully adapted to its now current graphical environment nor completely untangled itself from features more suited to incarnations in previous environments. We also find evidence of areas where we believe the terminal could be extended along with other areas where it could be simplified. Surprisingly, while many current efforts to improve the terminal include improving the terminal's social and collaborative aspects, we find little evidence of this as a prominent pain point.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 18, 2025

Guaranteed Guess: A Language Modeling Approach for CISC-to-RISC Transpilation with Testing Guarantees

The hardware ecosystem is rapidly evolving, with increasing interest in translating low-level programs across different instruction set architectures (ISAs) in a quick, flexible, and correct way to enhance the portability and longevity of existing code. A particularly challenging class of this transpilation problem is translating between complex- (CISC) and reduced- (RISC) hardware architectures, due to fundamental differences in instruction complexity, memory models, and execution paradigms. In this work, we introduce GG (Guaranteed Guess), an ISA-centric transpilation pipeline that combines the translation power of pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with the rigor of established software testing constructs. Our method generates candidate translations using an LLM from one ISA to another, and embeds such translations within a software-testing framework to build quantifiable confidence in the translation. We evaluate our GG approach over two diverse datasets, enforce high code coverage (>98%) across unit tests, and achieve functional/semantic correctness of 99% on HumanEval programs and 49% on BringupBench programs, respectively. Further, we compare our approach to the state-of-the-art Rosetta 2 framework on Apple Silicon, showcasing 1.73x faster runtime performance, 1.47x better energy efficiency, and 2.41x better memory usage for our transpiled code, demonstrating the effectiveness of GG for real-world CISC-to-RISC translation tasks. We will open-source our codes, data, models, and benchmarks to establish a common foundation for ISA-level code translation research.

MDK12-Bench: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models on Multidisciplinary Exams

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs), which integrate language and visual cues for problem-solving, are crucial for advancing artificial general intelligence (AGI). However, current benchmarks for measuring the intelligence of MLLMs suffer from limited scale, narrow coverage, and unstructured knowledge, offering only static and undifferentiated evaluations. To bridge this gap, we introduce MDK12-Bench, a large-scale multidisciplinary benchmark built from real-world K-12 exams spanning six disciplines with 141K instances and 6,225 knowledge points organized in a six-layer taxonomy. Covering five question formats with difficulty and year annotations, it enables comprehensive evaluation to capture the extent to which MLLMs perform over four dimensions: 1) difficulty levels, 2) temporal (cross-year) shifts, 3) contextual shifts, and 4) knowledge-driven reasoning. We propose a novel dynamic evaluation framework that introduces unfamiliar visual, textual, and question form shifts to challenge model generalization while improving benchmark objectivity and longevity by mitigating data contamination. We further evaluate knowledge-point reference-augmented generation (KP-RAG) to examine the role of knowledge in problem-solving. Key findings reveal limitations in current MLLMs in multiple aspects and provide guidance for enhancing model robustness, interpretability, and AI-assisted education.

  • 21 authors
·
Aug 9, 2025

Addressing Performance Saturation for LLM RL via Precise Entropy Curve Control

Reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled complex reasoning abilities in large language models (LLMs). However, most RL algorithms suffer from performance saturation, preventing continued gains as RL training scales. This problem can be characterized by the collapse of entropy, a key diagnostic for exploration in RL. Existing attempts focus on preventing entropy collapse through regularization or clipping. However, their resulting entropy curves often exhibit instability in the long term, which hinders performance gains. In this paper, we introduce Entrocraft, a simple rejection-sampling approach that realizes user-customized entropy schedule by biasing the advantage distributions. Entrocraft requires no objective regularization and is advantage-estimator-agnostic. Theoretically, we relate per-step entropy change to the advantage distribution under minimal assumptions. This explains the behavior of existing RL and entropy-preserving methods. Entrocraft also enables a systematic study of entropy schedules, which reveals that linear annealing, which starts high and decays to a slightly lower target, performs best. Empirically, Entrocraft addresses performance saturation, significantly improving generalization, output diversity, and long-term training. It enables a 4B model to outperform an 8B baseline, sustains improvement for up to 4x longer before plateauing, and raises pass@K by 50% over the baseline.